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Authors

  • Zishu Liu
  • Yuxin Xie
  • Jichuan Zhang

Introduction

In this project, we mainly focus on two outbreaks of COVID-19 in Singapore:

  • Singapore, March 2020 to Sept 2020
  • Singapore, July 2021 till now, mainly delta variant

Through analyzing and modeling the two outbreaks, we are looking forward to answering several questions:

  • How does the vaccination affect the outbreak?
  • How does the mask policies and the mobility affect the outbreak?

And we evaluate our models from two aspects:

  • whether the model is able to explain past data, especially the current outbreak in Singapore
  • whether the model is able to predict the future COVID-19 situation of Singapore

Results

The final report, our code and the presentation file are available at this Github repository. Please feel free to contact us if you have any question.

Visualization

First outbreak, calibration results.
Second outbreak, calibration results. Yellow area is the prediction of the future.
Second outbreak, without vaccination. More than 50% people get infected.